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Flying way off on a tangent here, the Sci Fi writer Stephen Baxter
conjectures that if we are ever going to have artificial intelligences
like in the movies, they would evolve out of the search engines.<br>
<br>
"Computer, please tell me about ancient Rome"<br>
<br>
"I have thousands of documents available, would you like to begin with
a general summary?"<br>
<br>
"Yes please"<br>
<br>
"This history of ancient Rome is divided roughly into the periods of
the kingdom, the republic, and the empire - "<br>
<br>
"Computer, stop, what sources do we have for the kingdom?"<br>
<br>
"Our sources are limited to the Roman history Livius, who wrote about
the kingdom in the reign of Augustus. He was writing of a period
between 500 and 750 years prior to his own birth..."<br>
<br>
you get the idea. The friendly useful computer is really just a
talking search engine. It only becomes HAL when you give it control of
life support.<br>
<br>
Robert Wilkens wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:000301c98b8b$a1f7dae0$e5e790a0$@com" type="cite">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">I
personally wonder who will be the first to volunteer to stop
using Google. In my experience, it’s the only search engine that finds
exactly
what I’m looking for almost every time. I often wind up using
something like
Live Search first because it’s the default in my browser, but too often
I find
the first page of results is either mostly spam, or completely
unrelated to
what I’m looking for. As long as Google is one of the few engines that
is as
up-to-date with search results and reliably finds what I’m looking for,
I feel
it will in my book always remain my first choice.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">I’m
not saying a better search tool will never come along, but
for today there are few truly good generic alternatives.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Rob<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div
style="border-style: none none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color blue; border-width: medium medium medium 1.5pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 4pt;">
<div>
<div
style="border-style: solid none none; border-color: rgb(181, 196, 223) -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1pt medium medium; padding: 3pt 0in 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Tahoma","sans-serif";">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Tahoma","sans-serif";">
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:lilug-bounces@lilug.org">lilug-bounces@lilug.org</a>
[<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:lilug-bounces@lilug.org">mailto:lilug-bounces@lilug.org</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Justin Dearing<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, February 09, 2009 5:21 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> LILUG Mailing List<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Lilug] The Elephant in the Room: Google Monoculture<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">Some interesting
points.
Although, I think eventually google will collapse under its own weight
like
most monopolies do if left to their own devices. Rome fell to the
barbarians.
Ironically, the barbarians eventually called themselves the Holy Roman
empire
even though they were neither very Roman nor very Holy. <br>
<br>
Eventually google will fat and lazy that we will all run a completely
decentralized search engine running through freenet on virtualbox
instances of
the hurd or something else no one else could have predicted.<o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="margin-left: 1.5pt; margin-right: 1.5pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 0.75pt; margin-right: 0.75pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<h3
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; margin-right: 2.25pt; margin-left: 2.25pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Sent to you by Justin
Dearing via
Google Reader:<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 0.75pt; margin-right: 0.75pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div style="margin-left: 1.5pt; margin-right: 1.5pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div style="overflow: auto; margin-left: 7.5pt; margin-right: 7.5pt;">
<div>
<h2
style="margin-right: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/001224.html">The
Elephant in
the Room: Google Monoculture</a><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">via
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/">Coding
Horror</a> by Jeff Atwood on 2/9/09<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">I was browsing
the sessions
at an upcoming <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://en.oreilly.com/found">Search Conference</a>,
which describes itself thusly: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The way to
online success is through being easily found in search engines such as
Google,
Yahoo!, and Microsoft Live Search. While developers have historically
thought
of search as a marketing activity, technical architecture has now
become
critical for search success. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Anyone else see
the <b>elephant
in the room</b>, there? No? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span
style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><img
id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:part1.08050602.06090907@secdat.com"
alt="Image removed by sender. Banksy: elephant in room" border="0"
height="404" width="646"></span><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Just two weeks
after we
launched Stack Overflow, I mentioned that <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/001174.html">search
engines
already made up 50% of our traffic</a>. Well, not so much search engine<b><u>s</u></b>
as search engin<b><u>e</u></b>: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">I try to be
politically correct in discussing web search, avoiding the g-word
whenever
possible, desperately attempting to preserve the illusion that web
search is
actually a competitive market. But it's becoming a transparent and
cruel joke
at this point. <b>When we say "web search" we mean one thing, and one
thing only: Google</b>. <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.skrenta.com/2006/12/googles_true_search_market_sha.html">Rich
Skrenta explains</a>: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">I'm not a
professional analyst, and my approach here is pretty
back-of-the-napkin. Still,
it confirms what those of us in the search industry have known for a
long time.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The New York
Times, for
instance, gets nearly 6 times as much traffic from Google as it does
from
Yahoo. Tripadvisor gets 8 times as much traffic from Google vs. Yahoo. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Even Yahoo's
own sites are no
different. While it receives a greater fraction of Yahoo search traffic
than
average, Yahoo's own flickr service gets 2.4 times as much traffic from
Google
as it does from Yahoo. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">My favorite
example:
According to Hitwise, [ex] Yahoo blogger Jeremy Zawodny gets 92% of his
inbound
search traffic from Google, and only 2.7% from Yahoo. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">That was written
almost two
years ago. Guess which way those numbers have gone since then? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Now that <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://stackoverflow.com/">Stack Overflow</a>
has been chugging right
along for almost six months, allow me to share the last month of our
own data. <b>Currently,
83% of our total traffic is from search engines</b>, or rather, one <i>particular</i>
search engine: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 225pt;" border="0"
cellpadding="0" cellspacing="4" width="300">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td
style="border-style: none none dotted; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Search Engine<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td
style="border-style: none none dotted; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color black; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">Visits<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Google<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">3,417,919<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Yahoo<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">9,779<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Live<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">5,638<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Search<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">2,961<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">AOL<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">1,274<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Ask<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">1,186<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">MSN<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">1,177<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Altavista<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">202<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Yandex<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">191<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">Seznam<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
<td style="padding: 3pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;" align="right">103<o:p></o:p></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Those 6x and 8x
numbers that
Rich quoted two years ago seem awfully quaint now. Google delivers <b>350x</b>
the traffic to Stack Overflow that the next best so-called "search
engine" does. <i>Three hundred and fifty times!</i> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Now, I don't
claim that Stack
Overflow is representative of every site on the internet -- obviously
it isn't.
It's a site for programmers. And let me be absolutely crystal clear
that I have
no problem at all with Google. That said, I find it profoundly
disturbing that <b>if
every other search engine in the world shut down <i>tomorrow</i>, our
website's
traffic would be effectively unchanged</b>. That's downright <i>scary</i>.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Yes, I like
Google. Yes,
Google works great and has been my homepage for about eight years now.
Google
nailed search, and they deserve the leadership position they've earned.
But
where's the healthy competition? Where's the incentive for Google to
improve?
All I see is a large and growing monoculture that acts as the <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.skrenta.com/2007/01/winnertakeall_google_and_the_t.html">start
page for the internet</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">I'm a little
surprised all
the people who were so <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft">up in
arms about
the Microsoft "monopoly" ten years ago</a> aren't out in the streets
today lighting torches and sharpening their pitchforks to go after
Google. Does
the fact that Google's products are mostly free and ad-supported
somehow exempt
it from the same scrutiny? Isn't anyone else concerned that Google,
even with
the best of "don't be evil" intentions, has become <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://whimsley.typepad.com/whimsley/2008/03/mr-googles-guid.html">more
master than servant</a>? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Calling the
current state of
search engine competition a horse race is an insult to horse races. No,
what we
have here is a one horse race where all the other horses were shipped
off to
glue factories years ago. <b>Forget "search conference", you should
be throwing a "Google conference", because there's no difference.</b>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">I don't know.
Maybe that's
OK. But it does mean that if Google, for whatever reason, decided to
remove you
from its search results, <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/000767.html">your
website no
longer exists</a>. At least not as a viable business, anyway. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding: 0.75pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal">[advertisement] Tired of restoring deleted
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"
style="background: rgb(195, 217, 255) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Things you can do from here:<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Kenneth Downs
Secure Data Software, Inc.
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.secdat.com">www.secdat.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.andromeda-project.org">www.andromeda-project.org</a>
631-689-7200 Fax: 631-689-0527
cell: 631-379-0010
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